The aurora outlook for winter 2026-27

Is solar cycle 25 over?

Not over, but past its peak. NASA and NOAA announced the solar maximum period on 15 October 2024 and expected it to last about a year before the decline.

In their joint announcement, the agencies wrote that "the maximum phase will last another year or so before the Sun enters the declining phase, which leads back to solar minimum." The exact month of the peak is only fixed in hindsight, once sunspot numbers have clearly dropped. NOAA tracks that on its solar cycle progression page.

For winter 2026-27 that puts us in the declining phase. Fewer sunspots, fewer flares, fewer of the storms that make the news far to the south.

Does the declining phase mean fewer northern lights in Tromsø?

Barely. Big storms get rarer, but Tromsø sits under the auroral oval and sees some aurora on about every other night even in quiet years.

The same NASA release adds that "though less frequent, scientists often see fairly significant storms during the declining phase of the solar cycle." And Tromsø does not need a big storm. According to UiT The Arctic University of Norway, "statistically speaking there are some kind of auroras on every other night over Tromsø", from faint to bright. Visit Tromsø puts it simply: the city lies beneath the auroral oval.

What the cycle changes is the ceiling. A quiet night gives a green arc. A storm gives the whole sky moving, with pink edges and red at the top. You will see more of the first kind this winter than in 2024. It is still worth the trip.

How do you read the aurora forecast for Tromsø?

Check the cloud forecast first, then the aurora forecast. A clear sky with modest activity beats a strong storm behind cloud.

Start with the cloud cover on yr.no, the Norwegian weather service's app. Then look at NOAA's 30-minute aurora forecast, which shows where the oval sits right now. NOAA rates geomagnetic activity on the Kp scale from 0 to 9. Tromsø is far enough north that you do not need a high number: some aurora shows on about every other night, storm or not.

UiT also recommends the all-sky cameras, which show the live sky above a site. If the camera is clear and green, go out. If it is grey, no Kp number will help.

Why do Tromsø chases drive to Finland?

Because the coast is often cloudy while inland valleys and the Finnish border are drier and colder. The guide drives to the gap.

UiT describes the pattern: the coast is mild but cloudy, inland is colder but often clearer. That is why the Chasing Lights minibus chase says it sometimes crosses into Finland, and why Northern Horizon asks you to bring a passport. One Northern Horizon guest in February 2026 wrote that they "drove in the Finland twice" looking for a hole in the cloud.

A chase you cannot steer, like a fixed camp or a cruise, works on clear nights. On a cloudy coast night, the vehicle that can drive three hours inland wins. Weigh the size of the group too: minibus or big bus covers the trade-off.

What time of night is best for the aurora this winter?

Roughly 20:00 to 02:00, with the most activity often within an hour or two of midnight.

Visit Tromsø gives 20:00 to 02:00 as the most active window, and NOAA says the best aurora usually comes within an hour or two of midnight. That is why the chases leave around 18:00 and get back between midnight and 03:00. Plan a slow morning after.

In the polar night it is dark from mid afternoon, and the aurora can show up early. See the polar night dates and the season overview.

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